I think that part of the issue with Hollywood is that they haven't adjusted to the new reality which has little to do with DEI and wokeness and everything to do with how movie-going and viewing habits have changed as well as the market in general. For a long while Hollywood was producing prequels, sequels, and reboots, along with big action and FX spectacles because these may or not have done well here in the States but they did outstandingly well overseas, China in particular. But that's all changed now, relations with China are no longer so cozy and they've started to develop their own domestic movie industry. To add to that, movie budgets have ballooned and streaming has really taken off giving consumers even more choices in how and where they want to watch their movies. And I think that Hollywood hasn't really adjusted to this new reality yet and, for the most part, is still doing things the same way they've been for the past couple of decades or so with the addition of throwing more and more money at each production.
I do feel, though, that Hollywood will change and adapt, it's just that it takes a while to course correct. There's been and probably still a lot of backlogged projects that they need to get through before they can turn the ship around, so to speak. But give them time and they'll produce more Barbenheimers and Everything Everywhere All at Once kind of movies. They'll realize that big-budget FX/action spectaculars are no longer the huge box-office draws they once were, esp, without overseas markets like China to make up for any domestic losses, and will likely move to smaller budget productions. And studios like Disney will probably also stretch out the amount of time their big movies stay in the theater before hitting streaming.
Yeah, again, I really don't think it's the woke/DEI/etc. stuff that's causing this. Sure, that upsets a segment of the audience, but I don't think it's the cause behind the kind of box office performance we've seen.
Think of it this way: these same issues were kicking around back in 2017-2019, right? And yet, box offices were still going strong. Many of the complaints about, for example, Captain Marvel (2019) did not stop it from making
$1.2B worldwide. That's a split, by the way, of about $426M domestic, and $701M international.
Same story with the Star Wars films. Rey was apparently a Mary Sue woke avatar (or whatever) as far back as 2015...but both The Last Jedi and Rise of Skywalker broke the $1B barrier (w/Last Jedi getting $1.3B) worldwide.
Bottom line, I think the cultural issues some audience members have with the content of these films is pretty marginal vs. the overall box office performance. What I suspect have had much bigger impacts are:
- Shifts in overseas markets. As noted, China is developing its own film industry and may be losing its taste for western cinema like it once had. That's a huge market that's shrinking, and one that studios counted on and even deferred to. Plus there are political ramifications there where Chinese censors won't let in certain films (and don't really need a reason to just say "no US films at all" if they want to). Russia is a closed market right now, too. Again, not a huge one, but it eats into margins.
- The rise of streaming culture has put a HUGE dent in box offices. Why go to the theater when it'll be on some service you already pay for in anywhere from 1-3 months? Even if it's not on a service you pay for, you'll be able to buy it streaming or on physical media within that time frame, and sometimes faster than it hits the streaming services (Disney has done this with several projects, where you could buy it before it hit the already-paid-for service, such as GOTG3).
- To add to the shift towards streaming, COVID I think hurt theater audiences and may have accelerated the shift to streaming.
I think it's also worth considering the impact of investors on the decision-making processes of the studios. In the late 2010s/early 2020s, esp. prior to the COVID pandemic, the prevailing wisdom seemed to be "You gotta get your own streaming service up" and the way to incentivize people to sign up for that was pretty simple: exclusive content. Silo all your stuff on your streaming service, make it unavailable (other than by purchase) outside of it, and you'll incentivize people to pay for a subscription. Consider the frustration some people had when they couldn't find The Office or Friends on Netflix or whathaveyou, because those went to Hulu and Peacock, respectively. To keep people interested, that also required investing in original programming, plus making sure attractive movies shifted over to streaming quickly. But the flipside of that is you conditioned your audience to LOVE streaming...and now they won't go back to theaters, or at least won't go as reliably as they did before.
Really, though, while this is a part of the shift, I think probably the biggest shift is the overseas markets. It's not "the writing is bad." If bad writing were a guarantee of bad box office performance, you'd never have seen another Transformers sequel. And yet, they've made...what...5? 6? I've lost count. The last one was "a disappointment" because they blew $200M making it, and it "only" made $400M. Not an unpopular film, I suppose, but not popular enough to justify its price tag for sure.
And that's about where the industry is right now. International markets aren't the backstop they once were. Streaming is still really attractive to audiences although there may be some rumbling about folks wanting to go back to physical media (which is a double-edged sword for studios). And big-budget spectacle is really common now. The market forces at play are simply different now than they were in 2019, and Hollywood -- like most industries -- pivots like an aircraft carrier.
