A few observations re: these data points.
1. I think that it's not exactly "theater fatigue," although high prices for the theater experience (and said experience not being quite worth it) are a factor (but not the decisive one.)
2. I think it's much more likely that audience interest in these franchises is waning somewhat. All manner of franchises are getting long in the tooth, and yet the studios keep going back to the well for more of the same.
3. The MI franchise has done a far better job of remaining a relevant "brand" over the years than the Indy series has. The Indy films are, fundamentally, products of the late-70s/80s era of filmmaking. Crystal Skull and Dial are more like one-offs after the fact. The moviegoing public is peopled more with people who were (a) born after these films were released, and (b) uninterested in watching anything older than whatever was in the cultural zeitgeist when they were kids. End result: there's no connection with Indy.
4. The MI franchise has always been a big hit overseas, which is probably going to save the film's box office receipts. Indy's well regarded, but again, an extremely old brand with an extremely old lead and just isn't the draw today that it was in the old days.
I don't think it's got a ton to do with "It's a good movie" or "it's a bad movie," nor do I think it's "It's from a bad studio that does bad things that I think are bad." Most audience members probably aren't paying close attention to reviews pre-release, unless the universal sentiment is "This movie sucks and you shouldn't see it." They're far more influenced by marketing campaigns than critics.
Agreed about Indy. I think the reasons for the bombing were simple (and 100% foreseeable).
Harrison is 80yo = not an action star.
PWB? I don't see any kid/teen appeal there. She is younger than Harrison but she's still old enough to be a 13yo kid's mother. A strong screenwriting resume doesn't sell tickets. Her acting resume is filled with stuff that kids/teens probably haven't seen. She's not sexy enough to sell tickets on looks. What else does that leave?
Everyone 25-30yo and up, they all remember that Indy#4 was disappointing.
This covers most of the public.
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