The question that nobody seems to be asking is: What would a truly new Indy franchise earn, in today's market, without any of the big titans that made the old ones?
The old Indy movies were all-star collaborations. Not only Harrison Ford, but also Steven. George. John Williams. Frank Marshall. Etc.
Even aside from that, many of the iconic hits in the 1970s/80s would struggle now. The original Star Wars ANH would be out of theaters in a few weeks in the 2020s (if it got made at all).
In 1981 'Raiders' was a low-budget genre movie that was carried out bigger & better than it had any right to be. You cannot just repeat that today and have another monster hit machine. Not like it was.
IMO trying to re-launch 'Indy' today is harder than people realize. It's less like recasting James Bond, and more like trying to make "Solo: A Star Wars Story" work. IMO the latter would have been a fondly-remembered hit if it had been made in the 1970s (with either Harrison or Alden in the lead). But today it's a mediocre movie that disappoints people. They had to recast an icon with a noob + expectations were too high for the movie overall.
This is the crux of the problem with trying to "reinvent" or trying to make endless sequels. We all know about the lack of creativity and that any shred of artistic integrity of a property is not a concern for Hollywood, so setting that argument aside for a moment I think you raise a fair point. I mean if we're talking about the business aspect of all this and the current culture of demand, it's clear this type of movie has long past expired demand from the public. Not as a genre, but as a specific property. Who is honestly clamoring for more Indiana Jones adventures from a marketing perspective? Some die hard fans might, but they aren't the target audience for this. Hollywood is interested in getting young people's money so why try and milk an outdated property to do it? Indy just doesn't sell anymore with kids because it's not the 1980's. They couldn't do it in 2008 with Crystal Skull and those toys languished in bargain bins for years. To a kid alive now, Harrison is ancient. What kid wants to see their grand father running around beating up Nazis? A group of evildoers they have no clue about. We are just too far removed from that era in history and only adults would understand it.
Their hope is to draw in the old audience with the name recognition and the slight hope that they'll drag their children to the theater and garner new interest with their kids. The fickle interest of children and young adults is simply not a smart move to bet on. I find it staggering that this is the gamble that Hollywood wants to make rather than finding new talent in the form of wholly new content. Make new genre films, absolutely. Just don't resurrect old properties and instead invent new ones. This is why I'm always harping on that their system itself is out of date. They're relying on a business model that doesn't even meet their own needs and it's why the streaming services have decimated their box office returns for years now because Hollywood is far behind the curve. I think they've forgotten what a genre is and hold to this idea that a franchise IS a genre rather than finding new story tellers who actually understand the difference.
Sure people will love an adventure movie but as you said, the draw of Indy back in the day was the powerhouse of talent and creative influence in their production. The cast, the director, the music. Those names hold a place of distinction in the minds of my generation but to the new generation they don't and the reason is because back in their heyday they had a wealth of content that delivered entertainment but from a totally different perspective. Young people today don't care whatsoever who George Lucas or Harrison Ford, Steven Spielberg, or John Williams are. Plus think about the movies that surrounded Raiders back in the day. It came only a few years after Star Wars when Harrison was at the peak of his career and was released in the middle of those original films, years before Return of the Jedi was even released.
Star Wars literally wasn't even over yet and riding high on that success only further cemented him as a blockbuster icon when Raiders came out. You had Blade Runner, and Alien, and all of these incredibly well loved films by directors and actors which became iconic because they were taking chances and telling stories no one had seen or heard before. Now Indiana Jones and Star Wars don't stand among the same peers. They stand with Marvel movies and DC movies, and the millions of new types of shows that streaming services offer and by comparison are outdated because their sensibilities are slow paced and quaint from the perspective of the information age. Those offerings from back in my childhood weren't filled with cynicism. They were optimistic and now everyone is jaded and contrarian. They're looking to subvert and send a political message rather than offer an escape from reality. Indiana Jones was created as a respite from all that and seemingly all Hollywood wants to do is mire us in it. Which is exhausting at best and tarnishes the legacy of the property at worst.
Indiana Jones as a film franchise is literally from a different era. Not just narratively but as a movie in the film industry. In the perception of a film producer and a teenager it's a dinosaur. I keep bringing up the analogy of the high school football star who can't do anything but recount their glory days. Sometimes you just have to let it go. That goes for fans as much as it does for Hollywood. That shouldn't diminish your love for it. Letting go just lends it some dignity. Something Hollywood is happy to exploit if you let it.
