Hollywood’s current state of failure and the reasons for it

[Psab keel]

We used to buy a ton of DVDs and Blurays. Hell, we had "DVD Christmas" every year because we got so many. Now, while we still get older movies and TV shows, we get very little modern. I might see one or two movies a year, never in a theater, usually not on streaming, if it looks good and has gotten good reviews, I'll just buy it. That is the only money that Hollywood is ever going to make from me and with more studios not putting things out on physical media, they are just losing money. Between bad decisions and bad movies, I'm saving a ton of money.

I too am looking to delve into older movies and tv shows. There's so much I have to catch up on. Plus, I know it's going to be less of a risk coming across this post modern nonsense.

 

[HeartBlade]

I think 'Barbie' was an obvious slam-dunk that somehow went un-made during the last 20 years. The whole thing, the concept, the production design, it feels like a flick from 2003. That's a selling point compared to the poop we've been getting lately.

Combine that mojo with a good cast & director, so there is enough quality to keep adults entertained, and there you have it. 'Barbie' also has multi-generational appeal. It was gonna be a cash cow even if the budget was twice as high. If the quality of the film was much lower it would probably still have been a decent mid-pack earner.

The crazy thing with Barbie is that there are still tons of internet “critics” trashing the movie. It did apparently go through several iterations with Amy Schumer for the titular role with a very different story so it seemed to be in a development hell state. I think the movie would have done better had it been released 5 to 10 years earlier (pre-Trump or in the Trump era) but it is still a good movie.

My guess is the usual new-tech pattern. It will lag behind predictions in the early stages but then eventually exceed them in the decades-long timeline.


IMO it's entirely possible for Hollywood to be out of business in a few decades. 'Real' movies will become like live theater, a niche thing that still has fans but is no longer THE big art form in the culture.

The studios will spend the first half of this transition going full-throttle to shift the creative & production workload over to AI. They will think they're geniuses. But then the public will decide studios aren't really necessary to make entertainment at all. D'oh!


I'm wondering about the role of celebrities/stars in the future, though. IMO they won't go away entirely. There will always be famous people who are trendy for their physical looks & personalities & behaviors. Hollywood (and the music industry) has provided the go-to platform to sell celebrities for the last 100+ years. What takes up the slack if Hollywood is over?

Will it just be the Instagram-type social media stuff alone? That could work in some ways. But I suspect that the dominant social media platform will end up being a perpetually-moving target. From MySpace to Facebook, etc. The trendiest bar/club in town doesn't stay the same one for decades, just like trendy hair & clothes styles are ever-changing.

True. There will be the overhype and poor implementation of AI and growing pains before it becomes an essential part of the new machine.

I agree studios will get hurt if they attempt to shift everything to AI. When CGI became big, Im sure studios attempted to make every movie CGI so they no longer needed to pay actors. However, live action persists.

I do agree that Hollywood in its current iteration is unsustainable and may even collapse completely if major changes arnt made. Film will never go away as it is a form of entertainment and hardcore fans will always exist like how vinyl and theater still exists but may not be the go to form much longer.

Celebrities will also always exist. Lets be honest, social media stars are the new celebrities and there are probably more young people that know Mr. Beast or Pewdiepie than Harrison Ford and that trend will continue. Given shorter attention spans, social media may be the new cultural avenue for media consumption. Rather than hopping around, there will probably be factions for platforms by generation. Like the youtube vs the tiktok generation, Im sure the next will have their own platform.

 

[Riceball]

some really interesting points made in this thread especially about everyone involved in a project getting paid appropriate to their contribution, but how do you agree who is worth what.... an actor gets say 5 million dollars for the movie where as a prop studio gets way less, but if the costumes and props make the character then why should that not be more evenly distributed? take a movie such as deadpool for example, would it have still been the same movie with someone else playing Wade Wilson? or was that entire movie just Ryan Reynolds doing what he does that made it what it is? is he worthy of more money than the costume designers/makers? who worked more hours on their part etc? very interesting indeed.

The thing about big name actors getting paid a lot is that big name actors are often a big draw for some movies. A lot of people go to see certain movies because of who's in it as much as what it's about and I've never heard of a movie being a big draw because of the props and costumes. Sure, people like us might go crazy over the props and costumes after we've seen the movie, but can you honestly say that you've gone to see a movie specifically because you liked the props and/or costumes that you saw in a trailer and had little to no interest in it until you saw those props and/or costumes? I've certainly never had, for me it's always been the premise of who's starring in it.

 

[VanPersie]

AFAIK that has only ever been a rumor.
He appeared in 'Rise of Skywalker' anyway.

The ST centered each movie around killing off one of the "big 3" OT characters. I suspect that Harrison & Kennedy were both just fine with the choice to kill Han Solo.

. . . and that backs up my original point. It wasn't the screenwriter who made the decision.

I suspect that it was a stipulation from Harrison. TROS appearance would arguable be a point refuting it, but for me, it was a short cameo of a dead character rather than a return as such

There's a writer & actor strike going on right now. Writers are taking quite a beating in the press/internet for all the crap that Hollywood has made in the last 15 years. IMO the writers aren't innocent but they bear less responsibility for the foul-ups than people tend to assume.

I tend to agree with you. Gambon wasn’t wrong when he said “welcome to the Layer Cake”

 

[Cephus]

There's a writer & actor strike going on right now. Writers are taking quite a beating in the press/internet for all the crap that Hollywood has made in the last 15 years. IMO the writers aren't innocent but they bear less responsibility for the foul-ups than people tend to assume.

The thing is, nobody is saying it is all their fault. They're just out there dancing for the media on the picket lines, screaming that they want more money when they haven't earned the money they're already getting. We know it's the whole studio system to blame. The writers and actors are just painting a target on their backs for the public's ire.

 

[joberg]

I think filmmaking is in deep shoot.

In the last 25 years musicians have mostly lost the ability to get paid for their work (in digitally recorded form). I don't see why it won't happen for filmmaking too. Only filmmakers don't even have the option of performing live shows to pay their bills.


It's a larger issue for all the arts. A.I. is coming and it won't be pretty. I am not optimistic that people will pay extra for human-produced art on principle; not if they can't tell the difference.

I've heard all the arguments that AI will never truly match human artistry. I don't buy them. AI doesn't have to be 100% perfect, it just has to be good enough to kill most artists' ability to make a living. That point looks inevitable to me.

There's a large swat of society that think that the "AI Threat" is just something fabricated by click bait people. Beware I say, beware!
Lots of jobs, in the movie industry or elsewhere in our society, will be replaced for many things:
1: Convenience; you just removed the human complexity with a machine/program.
2: Profit...'nuff said.
Paradigm shift is already occurring and it's only going to get worse before it gets better!

 

[Cephus]

There's a large swat of society that think that the "AI Threat" is just something fabricated by click bait people. Beware I say, beware!
Lots of jobs, in the movie industry or elsewhere in our society, will be replaced for many things:
1: Convenience; you just removed the human complexity with a machine/program.
2: Profit...'nuff said.
Paradigm shift is already occurring and it's only going to get worse before it gets better!

Big deal. People have said that about every major change we've faced. We survived and thrived. Change is inevitable. It's how you deal with it that matters. You can't make it go away.

 

[Captain Dunsel]

I really don’t think AI is going to completely take over entertainment; it just doesn’t have the ability to create new and innovative art. As others have said, it can only imitate but not innovate.

I mean, AI would never be creative enough to give us such transformative art and entertainment as the upcoming Disney comedy Snow White and the Seven Manson Family Members…

Only the mind of a human being could produce something on this level of creative genius.

Put a point up on the board for humanity vs. the machines, please

 

[joberg]

The problem is, that's not sustainable. They are desperately trying to cling to the past, which doesn't work in the present. Remember, this has been going on forever. Remember DiVX? They attempted to sell you DVDs that you had to pay them for every single time you watched it. It failed miserably because nobody was going to do that. Now, that's really what they're trying to do with streaming. They want money, not every time the movie airs, but every time anyone watches it. It's one thing to be paid per airing, but since streaming, it's always airing, they want to make money every time any individual watches it.

That is not sustainable. The fact is, in the modern world, the idea of residuals are not realistic. The idea that you are going to get paid for the rest of your life for something that you did once, that's just stupid. Now I agree that it's probably just as stupid for studios to continue to make money on these things forever. That is not the world that we currently live in. Instead of standing there with your hand out, why not just go DO SOMETHING NEW? Produce new music. Produce new movies. DO SOMETHING! Just because it worked in the past, and probably not even well, that doesn't mean it will continue to work in the present.

There has to be a new model for Hollywood because Hollywood is dying.

Obviously, copyright/IP laws have to be changed if we want to see individuals reap the benefits of streaming.

Radio royalties payouts system works by first having the radio station purchase a blanket license from the local performance rights organization(s). Then, the radio station reports the songs it has broadcasted back to the PRO, which uses that data to allocate and distribute the royalties due to proper artists and their representatives. This process can take a while — it’s not uncommon for artists to get their royalties more than a year after the actual broadcast took place. But that's just radio and it can more complicated than this whole sentence

I know that some of those contracts/laws are complex to manage or change without involving legal teams and years of negotiations.
Yes, actors can receive royalties from streaming services, but it depends on the contracts they sign with production companies and distributors. Some contracts may include provisions for residual payments or back-end profits based on viewership, while others may not provide any compensation beyond the original payment for their work!
Step 1: Negotiate Your Contract
Before production starts, you need to negotiate your contract with the film or show’s producers. This is where you will determine what percentage of streaming royalties you will receive.
Typically, actors negotiate between 2% to 4% of the producer’s gross income from streamed content. Depending upon your bargaining skills and popularity in the industry, this percentage might go up as well if you play important roles that drive traffic on screen.
Step 2: Register with Performing Rights Organizations (PROs)
Once production wraps and distribution begins, it’s time to register with PROs such as SAG-AFTRA (Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists) or other performance rights organizations.
These organizations protect your rights as an actor by monitoring the usage of your performances on various media including TV networks or international sales. Also these organizations ensure that any royalty payments owed gets duly communicated to production companies so that pay out can be started efficiently-avoiding breaching legal conditions.

Step 3: Set Up Your Direct Deposit Option
Most performing rights organizations have online portals where actors can set up their bank accounts for direct deposit after receiving earnings.
This helps speed up payment processing without having paper checks delivered through mail address which takes time .

Step 4: Track Performances & Royalties
It’s essential to keep track of all your performances and royalties accumulated, which will be the basis for your compensation plan from streamed content.
You can access this information on your online portal created by performing rights organizations so that all payments made to you are traceable while tax payables- inflows get documented as well .



Step 5: Continue to Negotiate
Royalties are not set in stone. With every new project you work on, it’s important to prove your worth and negotiate a higher percentage of royalties.
Through persistent negotiation, hard work on screen or roles played with greater importance as well, the chances increase multifold in order these negotiations can take place , actors making significant contributions during final negotiations leading to boosting their royalty eligibility.

There you go folks...seems that the "I'm the poor actor" is not really the true story. It takes negotiations and effort to make sure you'll receive your just royalties from streaming services...so I don't know what the strike is all about

As other mentioned; Hollywood and other small movie companies are capable of making good movies. It just has to put their greed aside and focus on good writing! As for the political inserting itself more and more; it's time to remove it from their shoulders. It really doesn't serve any purpose and is contrary to good entertainment as in "Escape" from the real world...since we can't count on Hollywood to have an accurate view of historical facts.

 

[joberg]

Big deal. People have said that about every major change we've faced. We survived and thrived. Change is inevitable. It's how you deal with it that matters. You can't make it go away.

Absolutely true brother There's always gnashing of the teeth when it comes to paradigm shifts in our societies...some will survive and some will not...that's life/Nature.

 

[joberg]

Correct.

Arguing that AI won't kill art is like a phonebooth repairman in the early 2000s arguing that cell phones won't kill his job. It's a delusion. And I don't know what's more concerning, the fact that it's happening or the fact that some people don't see it happening.

Those who don't see it happening base their arguments on excellence. "No AI system will ever be able to inspire the human spirit that way a human artist will." I won't argue with that.

What I will argue with is that 99.999% of all that is written, illustrated or composed is far from excellent, but represents the near entirety of the life economy (paying for food, rent, education, etc). That's the disconnect they don't realize or ignore.

That doesn't mean human art will be abolished. It just means making art for a living will be even more difficult.

AI will eventually be regulated to protect past works from being used (without compensation) to expand its ability to develop art - whether it's music, visuals, literature, etc. But that doesn't change the fact that it will eventually outperform humans.

When the airbrush came to life in the Art World (1876), other artists/painters deemed that type of "painting" not Art since no brushes (or other implements) would touch the canvas! Same with AI; it's not perfect and will not be perfect...just different and certainly another tool in the artist's bag. I remember the starting of the CGI in movies: bad for model makers and others. Some model makers adjusted their job by learning how to make CGI models for example. So, yes; survival is key. AI will have its good & bad sides like any other ideas/things we developed as a society.

 

[joberg]

If AI can make sex robots, I'm all for it.

Done already and for the precious rich ones

 

[Cephus]

When the airbrush came to life in the Art World (1876), other artists/painters deemed that type of "painting" not Art since no brushes (or other implements) would touch the canvas! Same with AI; it's not perfect and will not be perfect...just different and certainly another tool in the artist's bag. I remember the starting of the CGI in movies: bad for model makers and others. Some model makers adjusted their job by learning how to make CGI models for example. So, yes; survival is key. AI will have its good & bad sides like any other ideas/things we developed as a society.

Ultimately, it's "stop complaining and get to work." I wish more people would do that.

 

[joberg]

Netflix's $900,000 Job Listing For AI Expert is Alarming.​

Other major studios like Disney and Sony are also offering six-figure salaries for AI specialists.

Writers And Actors Balk At Netflix's $900,000 Job Listing For AI Expert

Other major studios like Disney and Sony are also offering six-figure salaries for AI specialists.

www.huffpost.com

Multiple Hollywood Studios Hiring Expensive AI Experts As Writers & Actors Strike For AI Regulations

AI is a major issue in ongoing Hollywood strikes.

screenrant.com

You cannot put the Genie back into the bottle

 

[Pepperbone]

Ultimately, it's "stop complaining and get to work." I wish more people would do that.

Right.
All these big [entertainment industry / art] changes we're going through - whether it's AI, new ways of screening and distributing content, whatever - they're all opportunities, if you have enough wisdom and discipline and desire to see past the fear and complaints.

 

[Cephus]

Right.
All these big [entertainment industry / art] changes we're going through - whether it's AI, new ways of screening and distributing content, whatever - they're all opportunities, if you have enough wisdom and discipline and desire to see past the fear and complaints.

Sadly most people don't because they'd rather live in a comfortable past than deal with the uncomfortable future. The people who can see the opportunities and make use of them, they will wind up incredibly successful and all the idiots on the picket lines, they're going to wind up left behind.

 

[Captain Dunsel]

Sadly most people don't because they'd rather live in a comfortable past than deal with the uncomfortable future. The people who can see the opportunities and make use of them, they will wind up incredibly successful and all the idiots on the picket lines, they're going to wind up left behind.

 

[jts1031]

Last weekend I watched The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance. And I found myself mulling it over for a few days after. My dad always said they had no choice but to have a good story, because there wasn't the eye candy that they use now as bait. And while spectacle can be a big draw, it's ultimately a good story that people want, something that they can even relate to in some way. For all the glamour and flash that is Star Wars, the most poignant part of that movie for me is when Luke is watching the suns setting, dreaming of the future. What kid didn't dream at that time? And Hollywood used to be about dreams. Now it's about checking boxes, fitting a mold. I think the future is not the movie theater. It'll move more in to the realm of VR, more immersive products. And I'm sure AI will be part of that. I believe there will come a day where we don't even have actors anymore. Won't have to worry if someone is late to set, or having a bad day, or flubbing their lines.

 

[joberg]

Just once I'd like to see someone do a qualitative analysis of a random sampling of Golden Age of Hollywood scripts vs a random sampling of movies today and see if modern writing really is worse. We only remember the good stuff.

Yes to that; especially during the early times (and the WW1 and WW2 stuff) some were not classics in the real sense of the term. Churning movies by the Studio System was the aim. Some of those were classics non-the-less loss in that mountain of productions of a lesser quality.

 

[joberg]

I remember when Jurassic Park was made. The stop motion animators like Phil Tippet thought they would be dinosaurs. Then Phil developed the Dino Input Device to interface with the CGI software. The best of both worlds. His many years of moving stop motion models, was integrated into the world of the computer. A.I. is coming and if it doesn't kill us off quickly, we'll still need movies to watch. We just need to find the way forward. How do we treat actors, writers, and crew fairly, while embracing the inevitable, or we can ban A.I. and start the War of the Machines now. Hey that would make a good movie, ; )

Same with 3-D printing! Another tool, that's it, that's all. But some applications might be the end of some jobs for sure! Welcome to the new reality.