The one place where “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” won’t break records is the world’s second-largest movie market -- China -- and without a big performance there the Walt Disney Co. film will struggle to overtake “Avatar” as the top-grossing picture of all time.
“The Force Awakens,” set to open Saturday in China, could gross as much as 1.5 billion yuan ($230 million) through its full run in mainland theaters, according to Nomura Holdings Co. This year’s “Furious 7” holds the record for the biggest international movie in China with $391.4 million in ticket sales, according to researcher Rentrak Corp.
The “Star Wars” franchise, one of Hollywood’s most valuable movie properties, isn’t as well known in China. That presents a marketing challenge for Disney, which paid $4 billion in 2012 for the series creator and plans to make four more “Star Wars” pictures. China, where ticket sales grew 48 percent to $6.75 billion last year, is set to become the biggest movie market in the world as soon as 2017.
“I’m skeptical it’ll hit with many new fans, given the film’s nostalgic tone and the comparatively muted reaction elsewhere in much of Asia,” said Jonathan Papish, an analyst at BoxOffice.com, which predicts $150 million to $200 million in China.
Richard Huang, an analyst at Nomura, expects “Star Wars” to roughly match the $228 million in Chinese box-office sales that “Jurassic World” generated last year.
“My concern is that the last one was 10 years ago and if people are not familiar with the American pop culture, they may not be aware of the movie,” Huang said in an interview.