Let’s do a check list:
1. The upcoming Carano lawsuit.
As a preliminary point, I didn't raise all of these issues. You did. I talked about the Carano lawsuit (which I address below), Marvel's performance this year (not THE Marvels, but rather Marvel Studio's), and made a general reference to the kind of stuff people love to kvetch about here, namely their favorite bugaboo of wokeness and representation.
But since you raised these, sure, we'll go point by point.
The Carano lawsuit is not a big deal. It's annoying and it generates a bunch of headlines, but there's a lot we don't know about it, and I suspect that even in Carano's wildest dreams, the actual financial hit that Disney would take would be minimal. Cara Dune as a character is not coming back. Period. To the extent that her lawsuit requests "reinstatement," and to the extent that she's even entitled to such, the underlying issue is that no court is going to require Disney to build an entire TV show around her. People who believe that are either idiots, or people with agendas who know dick about the law. I see this one as a big headline, but not a lot of substance behind it. And it'll continue to get headlines because culture warriors will choose to fight on these grounds. Massive waste of time, though, in my opinion.
2. Gender discrimination lawsuits that have just started.
Dunno about that one. From the one Variety article I read about it, I'd say this is a bigger mess for Disney, but I'd need a better sense of the potential scope of relief sought. This could be a massive pile of money, or it could be not actually all that much, depending on the jobs involved. This one's also a big headline, but if they can actually back it up, then this is certainly more substantive than the Carano suit.
3. Losing 1.3 million subscribers to Disney+ after raising the subscription prices
That story seems overblown, may be worth diving a little more into the details.
Here's the Variety article on point, if you're curious. Sounds like they lost 1.3M from their "core" service, but I'm unsure whether that accounts for adding people to higher tier services or how they classify "core" vs other levels (if they do that at all). Overall, out of a total of 150.2M, they dropped to "only" 149.6M. In other words, overall, they lost (as in, totally canceled service, it seems) about 600K when all is said and done. Not great, but not as bad as the initial headline makes it seem, and it amounts to a percentage drop of...just about 0.4%.
DISNEY LOSES 0.4% OF SUBSCRIBER BASE!!!
Not quite so sexy a headline, no? But ok, I'll be generous and let's say it's the full 1.3M. Well, now we're up to about 0.9%. Almost a full percentage drop!
4. Losing their trillion dollar lawsuit against Florida.
You may not know how federal civil procedure actually works, which is understandable given how the media tends to cover this stuff. Disney has not "lost" the suit. It sounds to me like they had the suit bounced on a 12(b)(6) motion (a motion to dismiss), for lack of standing and/or subject matter jurisdiction, and failure to state a claim (probably). I'd need to read the opinion, but unless you're willing to pay my hourly rate, I'm disinclined at this point. Maybe if this story kicks around more, I'll get more curious about it.
I did skip to the end of the opinion to see the ultimate procedural posture of the case. First, the case was dismissed without prejudice, which means that Disney can refile if they want. Second, they can also appeal this decision to a 3-judge panel of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. And depending on how that goes, they can then appeal to the full 11th Circuit (a.k.a. appealing en banc). And if they lose there, they can appeal to the S.Ct. I won't speculate about a S.Ct. ruling because that'd trend into political discussion, but I will say that there is a lot of procedural road ahead of Disney on this, and the case isn't "over."
Also you describe this as "losing their trillion dollar lawsuit," which I suspect refers to the damages that Disney was requesting from the state, and not some penalty that Disney faced if it lost the case. Put another way, if I lose a "trillion dollar lawsuit" that I filed because my Tesla exploded, that's not the same as me losing a trillion dollars. Unless Disney had to put up a $1T bond, they didn't "lose" a trillion dollars.
5. The Marvels Box office failure
Oh come on. You cannot believe that THIS is the thing that puts Disney under. Come on, man. This is simple economics here. Marvels cost somewhere between $220M and $274M to make. It made around $200M. It's a loss, no question. It is not the ZOMGENDOFTHEWORLDMCUISOVER loss that a bunch of youtube clowns want you to believe it is. It may not even be that high. Why? Because the writers and actors strikes were happening while this film was being released, which meant that the marketing budget may have actually been lower than the usual "budget of the film is the actual budget doubled to include marketing" theory. Again, it's a loss. Probably the worst performing MCU film in a long time (maybe ever? I dunno -- I don't follow this as closely as Marvel haters do, I suppose.) But if you think The Marvels is gonna be the thing that kills the company, well, think again.
6. Low attendance in the parks.
Yeah, that one's an issue, if that's accurate. I don't personally know because I haven't focused on Disney's park attendance. I don't actually care that much. I know that my family and I probably aren't headed to Disney World (which is closer for us), but might consider Disneyland at some point, maybe (personally, I still wanna go to Galaxy's Edge). But again, I'd bet that has a lot more to do with macroeconomic conditions than anything else. People need disposable income to travel and visit amusement parks. When stuff gets tight because the cost of staple goods goes up (either because the actual cost goes up or because the volume of goods goes down but the price remains the same), people just have less money to spend. Similar story to folks not wanting to spend money on movie tickets when a night at the theater is gonna run them +$100 for tickets and food, given that they could just wait for things to hit streaming, watch on a bigscreen TV with surround sound, and make their own food in a couple months.
7. The writer’s strike causing delays in productions.
Yup. That's a problem. But that's not unique to Disney. That's the entire industry, with the possible exception of studios like A24 and some other indies whom I think were allowed to proceed with some productions and which negotiated separately rather than through AMPTP.
And you’re telling me all of that isn’t going to cause Disney to sweat. Okay. If you say so.
Some stuff will cause Disney to sweat. But a ton depends on what the shareholders think. I would bet that a bigger question is what kind of finance deals lurk in the background rather than the stuff you've pointed to. Those probably cause way more agita. If, for example, Disney has partnership deals where they're expected to pay up a bunch of money and they need to be more liquid than they are to do that, yeah, THAT'S gonna be a problem, because then they have to sell a bunch of stuff to make ends meet. That's a bigger deal.
But there's a bunch of stuff in your list that's just, frankly, small potatoes for a company like Disney. It grabs big headlines, but it doesn't actually matter to their bottom line. They're a multibillion dollar megacorp, man. They don't give a **** about Gina Carano's stupid lawsuit. Hell, she could win hands-down 100% and it still would barely chip Disney's paint.
Look, I get that a lot of folks have a half-chub for seeing Disney take it in the shorts because they don't like how movies are being made today. But the stuff that's actually going to hurt Disney are things that have zip to do with that stuff. It has to do more with people tightening their belts as consumer expenses rise at a rate that outpaces pay increases, and with general shifts in audience tendencies to go to theaters or amusement parks or other expensive outings when they can just stay home and stream things.
There are similar macroeconomic pressures affecting all kinds of other sectors of the economy, and a ton has to do with the lingering effects of the pandemic. Not because of fears of getting sick, but because people got a LOT more used to doing stuff remotely as a result. Remote work, remote dining (a.k.a. grubhub, etc.), remote movies (a.k.a. streaming), and so on. That has disrupted consumer habits the way Amazon disrupted shopping tendencies, and it's the kind of thing that has long-term effects and to which industries across the board are always slow to respond. Disney's no exception there.
I'd be curious as to whether Disney is suffering any losses, and if so, whether those losses are in some way out of line for the industry as a whole. If they're doing better than the industry, then none of this crap matters. It's an industry problem and everyone's suffering, and so the industry will adjust and Disney's probably better positioned than most to do that. If it's something specific to Disney (i.e., they are hurting more than other similarly situated megacorps),
then maybe they worry.
