Now, maybe the shutter speed is different, so maybe frame 2 of the 24 has more motion blur than frame 3 of the 48. But they're still capturing the same moment of time.
That is the reason that a straight 48 to 24 frame cut might not work.
Film shot at 24fps usually does so with a standard 180 degree shutter, which provides a shutter speed of 1/48 of a second. This, as you observe, introduces a good amount of blur to the image. While this would be bad for a still photograph it is essential in a motion picture to create a convincingly smooth illusion of movement.
If you use a faster shutter the image will be sharper (as anyone who has played with a camera will know), but in motion the image will strobe. When shooting Saving Private Ryan they used both a 45 degree or 90 degree shutter (resulting in a shutter speed of 1/192 and 1/96 of a second respectively) for shots during the battle scenes; which is why they had the jarringly staccato motion characteristics. Less motion blur creates less smooth motion.
If the 48 fps footage was shot with a standard 180 degree shutter it would have a shutter speed of 1/96 and would have significantly less motion blur. This would be fine projected at 48 fps with regard to strobing but when converted to 24 frames by the removing every other frame method, have the same motion characteristics as Saving Private Ryan's battle scenes.
While the jerky verite style works well in a gritty war film it would look out of place in a grand fantasy, and perhaps more importantly, would not gel visually with the Lord of the Rings movies.
The Hobbit is being shot at 48fps with a 270 degree shutter, which gives a shutter speed of 1/64 of a second. This is still a shorter exposure than standard 24fps footage, so there will be less motion blur but is still long enough to introduce some motion blur. It is equivalent to shooting 24fps with a 135 degree shutter.
Whether this is enough to allow for a simple conversion or further playing about in post is required I can't say. What I can say is no-one looked at the trailer, which was released at 24fps, and complained that it looked awful; at least from a photographic perspective.
If I find the 48 fps version distracting to the point it is unwatchable I'll be able to go to see it at a 24fps screen. Much as those who hate 3D can choose to see the 2D version at present.