I stand corrected.
Still seems a bit like hyperbole on Feig's part, but I think his point is that the film has to do really well to be considered a studio success.
We shall see where this goes in the next couple weeks. Personally, I think they end up just treating GB16 as not quite a "tentpole" franchise, but still try to franchise it with smaller-budget films.
I was always told you need to basically triple the budget to break even by the various people I fly (studio execs). A better number is to times the budget by 373%. This figure accounts for theater cuts, various percentages and general behind the scenes expenses that we normal folk never consider etc. Below is a great article that goes into the ROI formula for a movie. Feigs ROI isnt far off. If you do the math, GB16 needs to make $540M to break even.
https://storyality.wordpress.com/20...n-feature-films-and-roi-return-on-investment/
I do think you are correct that IF Sony green lights another GB movie, it will have a smaller budget. IF GB16 is a loss and leaves an 'ok' taste in the audience mouth, its gonna be a hard sell. Regarding merchandising, the toys are already on clearance. And thats too bad. But traditionally, the majority of action figure sales are little boys.
Lets look at Nolans Batman Begins. Using the 373% formula, it didnt hit the profitable mark ($150m budget/ $374M world wide). But WB went forward because of rave reviews, strong public reaction, toys flying off the shelf, strong licensing sales etc. WB approved The Dark Knight with a $180M budget and over a Billion in ticket sales worldwide. Dark Knight Rises saw similar numbers. The original Nolan movie hit every mark, fans loved it, the average movie goer loved it, lots of toys and shirts to buy, thus two successful sequels. There was a huge potential after Begins and WB followed the same formula to great success.
All movies have to be good regardless of their fan base or genre to further interest in the franchise. Personally I think Sony is putting up a united front with sequel statements to try and stop the losses at this point. I think they will hold on to this a while, let the dust settle and pull a page out of the Spiderman playbook.
The take away im getting is the people who want to go in for a good time, they have a good time. The people who go in with a chip on their shoulder come out disappointed.