Solo: A Star Wars Story

Solo has dropped a massive 77% Friday to Friday.
For comparison, here are other Fri/Fri drops:

TFA 58.6%

R1 67.8%

TLJ 76.3%

A 77% drop is not the normal type of box office drop. It is the "let's send them the horse head in a box as a message" type of drop off.
 
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So, yeah, a 77% drop is....bad. That's never good, no matter what fans might claim to the contrary. It may have nothing to do with the film itself. It may be due to some external factor. But whatever the reason is, a 77% drop is just bad.

That said, Disney/LFL may have been braced for it. That's not to say they were "ok" with it, but rather that it's expected. Two things to keep in mind:

1. They had to know that the film was already behind the 8-ball, so to speak, when the original directors had to be ditched and the film had to be largely reshot. Something like that is a big miscalculation, and a costly one at that. It's a ****up, and one that cost lot of money. I suspect that Kathleen Kennedy will survive regardless, but Lord & Miller are likely poison for a while. At least beyond their known wheelhouse of goofy comedies.

2. Keeping the brand in people's minds has value unto itself. So, even a costly ****up may -- in some cases -- be worthwhile, if it doesn't harm the brand. A box office drop in and of itself doesn't attach to the brand. As I noted, there could be external factors. It's bad, but it's not fatal to the brand as a whole (seriously, any brand that can survive TPM is basically invincible). And if the film ends up being regarded a la On Her Majesty's Secret Service (to wit: a good film hamstrung by audience expectations that didn't match with what the film did), it may be a net...well...break even. Not necessarily a win, but not a loss.

Bottom line: I don't see them necessarily killing (a) the current direction of Star Wars over this, (b) the executive leadership at LFL, or (c) future Solo-spinoff projects. That's not to suggest that Disney/LFL is happy with this result, but rather that the disappointments and impact of the film is already priced-in to the internal response to it.
 
There's another way to look at this:

TFA - 58.6%
R1 - 67.8%
TLJ - 76.3%
Solo - 77%

It's simply dropping off more severely with each new Disney SW movie. On the other hand the rate of worsening is slowing down and leveling off. The 77% dropoff rate is BAD but is it the new norm for the franchise? This pattern looks logical for movies appealing mostly to a rabid fan base, and not appealing that well to casual viewers.


One other thing - I think every single casual or non-SW fan that I have talked to about this movie, has asked me this near the beginning of the conversation: "Do you have to be all current with the rest of SW to enjoy this one?"

It suggests that quite a few people probably skipped 'Solo' in the theaters because of that uncertainty. This was only the 2nd stand-alone SW movie ever done. (And it could be argued that 'Rogue One' wasn't entirely stand-alone because you missed a lot if you saw it that way.)

It may take a while for the mainstream public to widely understand that some modern SW movies will be casual-friendly and others will not. Disney needs to make a clear effort to convey that issue (like right in the title) one way or another. The "____, a SW story" layout might turn out to be sufficient, but it may take a few movies for this to soak in with the general public.
 
While I respect your opinion, I respectfully disagree. The movie is a bomb for the exact reasons you list.......

They released the 4th SW movie in 4 years, a few months after the most unpopular one in decades. It has no big stars, only unknown substitutes for real icons. It has no direct storyline connection with the existing episodes. And they basically paid to film it twice over.


If I had to explain why this movie bombed to someone who hadn’t seen it, I would just read them your post. If this were a generic space pirate movie and not Star Wars, then I’d probably agree with what you said.
 
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Thanks for the compliment. I guess it depends on how we are defining a 'bomb.' From the POV of the studio's marketing and franchise planning, then yes, it was very much a bomb.

I take issue with the label because I think the writers & cast & crew don't deserve to be tarred with that brush (as often happens in cases like this). They dodged a whole lot of potential creative pitfalls, that's for sure. We all talk about the ones they failed to dodge but it could have been so much worse.

In 5 years nobody will remember how many months apart this movie was from Ep#8, or what else was opening that weekend, or the weekend before, or how much money it made, or how that compared to its production cost. They will watch & judge the movie for what it is. I think it will be rated as decent.
 
In 5 years nobody will remember how many months apart this movie was from Ep#8, or what else was opening that weekend, or the weekend before, or how much money it made, or how that compared to its production cost. They will watch & judge the movie for what it is. I think it will be rated as decent.

After the release of each Disney Wars movie, public opinion has worsened over time.

This one will be no different.

The Wook
 
After the release of each Disney Wars movie, public opinion has worsened over time.

This one will be no different.

The Wook
I still haven't seen Solo, but I do have a feeling that time is going to be kinder to this. Probably because I have zero expectations and that's when I usually get a pleasant surprise. Not saying it will probably become a classic, more like Halloween 4, we have like 8 Halloween movies, 1 of them is great, 2 of them are okay and they just look and feel better in retrospect of the junk they're embedded into. And this is what I fear Star Wars is becoming in a few years with a movie being pumped out annually. Just a load of okay-to-bad flicks with 1 or 2 highlight movies in a sea of mediocrity.
 
I still haven't seen Solo, but I do have a feeling that time is going to be kinder to this. Probably because I have zero expectations and that's when I usually get a pleasant surprise. Not saying it will probably become a classic, more like Halloween 4, we have like 8 Halloween movies, 1 of them is great, 2 of them are okay and they just look and feel better in retrospect of the junk they're embedded into. And this is what I fear Star Wars is becoming in a few years with a movie being pumped out annually. Just a load of okay-to-bad flicks with 1 or 2 highlight movies in a sea of mediocrity.

Still waitin' on that "highlight" movie.
 
No argument there. And if it's true that the next one is gonna be a Boba Fett movie then it's going to take a while methinks.
I too think this will delay future movies. Disney will want to get their ducks in a row at Lucasfilm before putting out another major cinema release.

Hopefully this spells the end for Darth Kennedy and the Knights of Johnson.

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Anything that delays more SW movies by any amount of time is a plus IMO. They have really overdone this lately.

It was totally inevitable though. Once Disney bought the franchise they were going to put out too much too fast and wear out the public's interest. It was 100% guaranteed, just as sure as they were going to do anything with the franchise at all.
 
I don't know that I agree that it's "not enough time between movies." I think this movie had a few things stacked against it from the start:

- They had to change creative teams and reshoot a LOT of the film at the...what...9th hour? 10th? Not quite 11th, but still pretty late in the game. That had to increase costs pretty significantly.

- The film really was one that nobody was asking for and was met with a lot of skepticism. Rogue One was a pleasant surprise for me, and I expect the same will be true for Solo when I see it, but honestly, I was never excited about seeing Han Solo's backstory. I'm not excited about seeing a Boba Fett or Obi-Wan movie, either. I'm ready for new characters in new situations. Let's expand the scope of things instead of just retreading old ground. As for general audiences, I don't know that anyone is really all that excited about learning Han Solo's backstory.
 
Besides, they just went over stuff the hardcore fans already know, for the most part at least, cause some stuff was different, like meeting chewie etc. So maybe they shouldnt alienate their hardcore fan base. Cause casuals/new fans would be like "why would I see a han solo film when in the ST he is dead and there is still one more to go?!" Its floundering because it was nothing spectacular, and nobody needed to know anything from this movie. Han Solo is a prime character that doesnt need a backstory. Hell, if anything, this movie made Han LESS cool. Which sucks for obvious reasons.
 
Solo4114 That last sentence is exactly right.
I think if they had made a Kenobi movie in place of this Solo movie, it would have faired better. Even in the wake of TLJ although, the response to the critism has done more damage than the movie itself.
Han Solo is probably more an OT fan favourite. Where as, Obi Wan Kenobi is probably a PT favourite of the older fans as well as the younger generation that grew up with the prequels.
I think many of us would have been happy to see Ewan get another shot with a better script and dialogue. The years between ROTS and ANH are unknown and there are no obvious boxes to tick but again the story is too restricted by established events.
I have to agree, it may be time to leave established characters behind and create new ones in new situations with no links to the Skywalker Era. The interconnecting 'shared universe' works for Marvel but seems to be detrimental to Star Wars.
 
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I think the reasoning for making this film was very straight forward. They had a well developed story concept written by Lawrence Kasdan, initiated by George Lucas, and it was a project that could be put in front of cameras relatively quickly.
 
I think the reasoning for making this film was very straight forward. They had a well developed story concept written by Lawrence Kasdan, initiated by George Lucas, and it was a project that could be put in front of cameras relatively quickly.
But they didnt need to have some shlock thrown out relatively quickly. People(some anyway) are still looking forward to Ep 9, and they got Galaxys Edge coming out next year, and Marvel is carrying Disney quite a bit. They should have shelved this idea. This movie just didnt need to be made.
 
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