I find it funny how many people say in a head to head matchup, conan would beat Leno. The numbers just don't say that. Leno owned Letterman. Letterman didn't beat the tonight show in ratings until Jay retired. I don't know if Conan beat him once since assuming the show. Plus, as others noted, Craig Ferguson beat Conan and he was on later.
I can't imagine Jay taking the tonight show back to be honest. He doesn't strike me as that kind of guy unless his contract mandates it happen in the event the spot becomes open. Even so, i'd imagine he'd try and get out of it.
The story was told well earlier in the thread. This is NBC's doing and no one elses. They made Jay set a retirement date because of the fear of losing conan and their fear he'd be able to beat Leno (which has yet to be demonstrated, frankly) so the promised him teh tonight show to get him to stay. Fast forward a few years and the same thing in reverse. Jay was going to be a free agent and NBC freaked that he'd go to another network and hammer the Tonight Show. So they came up with this plan to have him at 9 central.
As for the 9 central plan, i can't think of ANYONE who thought it'd work. No one. NBC, though, got the ratings they expected. What they didn't expect was the HUGE backlash from affiliates that their local news ratings (where they make their money) were sufferring because of it. They can ignore the public saying it isnt' working, but not the affiliates.
So, they're back in their previous spot . They don't want to lose conan and the don't want to lose Leno. I'm sure they figured a 30 minute leno would go over great with all involved. But, kaboom, it blew up in their face.
The only honorable thing to do is leave the tonight show as it is and tell jay sorry it didn't work. I can't imagine them doing that unless they get him to agree to a no-compete against the tonight show clause. That's their fear, he goes elsewhere and returns to the top of the late night ratings.
Frankly, i'd love it if they tried to keep leno and fired conan and then leno said he wanted no part of it after that...
Sadly, the one guy who won't go in this mess is Fallon. Wow, that one sucks.